UK Rape Crisis Dashboard - 5 Million Victims Since 2002

Base Data Calculation:

England & Wales (2023): 67,928 recorded rapes (last official data)

UK-wide projection: Pro-rated to include Scotland and Northern Ireland = 76,195 total recorded rapes

True scale calculation: Recorded × 1.122 (UK adjustment) × 6 (underreporting) × 0.95 (false allegations) = Annual true scale estimate

Cumulative totals: Running sum from 2002 baseline through current projections (4.74M through 2024)

Key Multipliers:

Underreporting rate: Only 1 in 6 rapes are reported to police (Rape Crisis England & Wales)

False allegations: 5% rate used (within established 2-8% range from academic research)

UK adjustment: 12.2% increase to account for Scotland and Northern Ireland population

Gender breakdown: 91% female victims, 9% male victims (ONS Crime Survey)

Historical Data Application:

Consistent methodology: Same calculation applied to all years from 2002-2024

2002 baseline: 12,295 recorded → 78,632 estimated true scale

2023 latest: 67,928 recorded → 4,292,132 cumulative true scale since 2002

452% increase: Reported rapes from 12,295 (2002) to 67,928 (2023)

European Context:

England & Wales rate: 117.7 per 100,000 (2021) - highest in Europe

European mean: 21.5 per 100,000

Second highest (Sweden): 96.0 per 100,000

UK position: 23% higher than Sweden, 447% above European average

Justice System Failure:

Charging rate: Only 2.1% of reported cases result in charges (House of Lords Library)

Total charged 2002-2024: ~17,500 people over 23 years

True scale uncharged: 99.6% of actual rapists never face charges

By 2029: 532,055 people will rape without consequence in that year alone

Projections Methodology:

Growth rate: 3.5% annual increase (conservative estimate)

Cumulative projection: Applied to build running totals through 2029

2029 projection: 7,237,282 cumulative total (2.5M additional from current)

Time calculations: Based on 2025 annual projection of 465,365 (Every 68 seconds)

Primary Sources:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS) - Police recorded crime data & population statistics
• Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) - Victimization estimates
• Rape Crisis England & Wales - Reporting rate statistics
• House of Lords Library - Rape prosecution statistics
• European statistical data - Sexual assault rates per 100,000 population
• Academic research on false allegation rates (Lisak et al., 2010)